Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola

Abstract Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development are expected become worse impacts increase. In this study we analyze signal on temperature rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020–2040 2040–2060. The analysis is based multi-model ensemble Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 CMIP6) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from observed dataset indicate that mean annual over risen an average 1.4 °C since 1951, with warming rate approximately 0.2 [0.14–0.25] per decade. However, pattern appears be primarily influenced natural variability. Projections extreme show increase coldest nights projected warmer hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest in nature rainy season increases heavy precipitation events future. We investigated how droughts might all river basins Angola, found increased uncertainty about drought changes variability demonstrate need adaptation measures focuses reducing risks key sectors particular focus cities given potential mobility towards urban areas.